Computation with imprecise probabilities
نویسنده
چکیده
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measure, real-world probabilities are perceptions of likelihood. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise, reflecting the bounded ability of human sensory organs, and ultimately the brain, to resolve detail and store information. Imprecision of perceptions is passed on to perceived probabilities. This is why real-world probabilities are, for the most part, imprecise.
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تاریخ انتشار 2008